Why'd this come about? Well, Pats fans were on a ledge. They'd just been blown out by New Orleans. They were declaring the season over. I wasn't so convinced, so I decided to take a look at the landscape to see who really had reason to hope for a successful January. Since then, we've learned a few things and we've seen some assumptions hold true, while others failed to hold water.
Here now, is the list of potential playoff teams, starting with the AFC:
NEW ENGLAND (8-5): Okay, here's the scoop. This team is disjointed, sure. They're not clicking on all cylinders, and there are a couple of reasons why. I think Bill Belichick expects this team to be the same squad that was multi-dimensional like in 2007. He wants every play to go for 12 yards. As a result, he's relying too heavily on the one play that is accomplishing that goal - 12-yard slants to Wes Welker. In his last four games he has 41 catches for 496 yards...and no touchdowns. The Patriots don't want to commit to a running back, can't seem to decide how to throw to Randy Moss (and are fine with him getting shut down by good corners) and won't test safety pressure. Their thought right now is that at least once in a four-down series, somebody will break a route, which is why they've gone for so many fourth-down conversions. They have this old, tired insistence that nobody can stop them. They are still a top-3 AFC team, but they need a slice of humble pie first. Still left are games at Buffalo, home against Jacksonville and at Houston. All three are winnable. But one slip-up and they could be looking at a very frustrating end to the season where I'm sure they'd much rather be resting and prepping for the playoffs.
MIAMI/NY JETS (7-6): Way to play yourself back into a postseason discussion. Neither of these teams is battle-hardened, making perfection - which is what each team will need to earn a playoff berth - unlikely. Miami faces Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. All tough, physical teams that are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture. But to sweep those three would be a feat. If Chad Henne does it, it's time to start looking away from the Wildcat and start looking closer at Henne as a viable every-down starter. The Jets are beat up and face an impossibly tough schedule of Atlanta, Indianapolis and Cincinnati. They need a miracle, especially with Mark Sanchez as a big question mark.
CINCINNATI (9-4): Admit it - this is better than you expected this Bengals team to be. They've guaranteed a winning record and one win, combined with a Ravens loss, will clinch a playoff spot - and a No. 2 seed isn't out of the question. But - and this is a big but - they've looked vulnerable lately. They didn't put up much fight against a banged up Vikings squad, and they beat a few creampuff opponents in Cleveland and Detroit by less-than-impressive margins. The tragic death of teammate Chris Henry, coupled with a very difficult road game this week at San Diego - could set this team in one direction or the other. It either becomes a rallying point or it becomes a means to feel sorry for themselves. Regardless, there's a lot riding on this game this weekend, and it'll be tough for this team to focus. It will tell us a lot about just how good this Bengals team really is.
BALTIMORE (7-6): Fans of the Ravens will look back at a few choice outcomes this year and wonder what might have been. This 7-6 team suffered three consecutive losses of six, three and three points - all to very good teams - and just one of those games swinging their way gives them some added momentum and a stranglehold on a playoff berth. Fortunately for the Ravens, the schedule the rest of the way looks easy enough, provided they take care of business. Beat Pittsburgh on the road and this could easily be a playoff team. Lose that game and it's an early exit.
INDIANAPOLIS (13-0): Still the question remains - do they WANT to go undefeated? I continue to doubt it. But they've locked up a first round bye and once they've got home-field advantage throughout locked up, they'll rest people. Until then, they play two teams fighting for their playoff lives and then they have to go TO snowy Buffalo. If they "accidentally" lost one there, I wouldn't be surprised.
JACKSONVILLE (7-6): Home against Tennessee, then on the road against New England? The Pats haven't lost at home all year and they're not going to next week. Tennessee hasn't lost all year long and they're probably not going to this week. This team needs to win all three after that tough loss to Miami. They won't do that.
SAN DIEGO (10-3): In the driver's seat. They continue to beat good opponents and show the rest of the league they're ready for a battle. A win this week would give them a stranglehold on a first-round bye in the postseason, and I can't imagine them losing.
DENVER (8-5): That win streak early in the year has put Denver in a remarkably good position. The Broncos are a step ahead of four teams with wild card hopes, all standing at 7-6. Games against two divisional opponents (Oakland and Kansas City) will almost assuredly give them a wild card spot, leaving just one up for grabs for everyone else. But the big test lies with Philly in Week 16. Both teams have something to play for, both teams are likely playoff-bound, both teams have struggled with inconsistency. The winner of that game has proven its worth as a viable postseason opponent. The loser is facing a tough road. Watch that matchup.
Division Winners: New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis*, San Diego* (*-Bye)
Wild Card Winners: Denver, Baltimore
The Steelers' late-season swoon gets them replaced, and Baltimore takes their place. First-round matchups look like they'd be the Bengals hosting Baltimore while New England earned a rematch against Denver, this time at home. It's still going to be very tough for any of those four teams to win in Indy or S.D. But if one of those teams starts really clicking on all cylinders, there is enough talent on any of those four rosters to knock off anyone in the league.
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