The Playoff Picture (AFC)

I've been thinking a lot about the playoffs lately. For a few reasons. First, they're only five weeks away. Second, Bill Simmons tweeted earlier this week that "The Patriots are dead." Bull-you-know-what they're dead. They can't be dead. They're 7-4 and could well be 11-1 save for a few missed chances.

This got me to thinking. There are three NFL teams that look destined for Super Bowl XLIV. Unfortunately only two get to go. Then there are a bunch of teams who could well be there in just the right circumstances. And then there are a bunch of teams who are dressed up all pretty, but aren't going to have a date with that suave fellow named Destiny.

First, rule out Miami, the Jets, Buffalo, Cleveland, Kansas City and Oakland. Miami and New York would need to win out in order to be in contention and I just don't think that's happening, given their schedule and the other teams with similar or better records ahead of them.

Let's take a look at some of these teams, starting at the top of the standings and working our way down...

NEW ENGLAND (7-4): Lost a game at the Jets they should have won. Lost a game in Denver they should have won. Lost a game at Indy they should have won. Got blown out in New Orleans. With a more-or-less cupcake schedule the rest of the way, this team needs some Belichick-like discipline, especially on defense, and other than that, they're capable of beating anyone in the AFC. They have the talent to play with anyone. Plus they'll host a playoff game no matter what.

CINCINNATI (8-3): Love to see them back in the thick of it. Barring a collapse they've locked up the division. But here's where it gets interesting. Games in week 14 and 15 will essentially decide whether they host a wild card game or earn a bye. But this is a team that has scored 30 or more points just twice. They're a win-ugly squad that relies on defense. That's great, until they have to play Minnesota and San Diego. Those games will tell us if Cincy is for real. Sadly, I doubt they are.

BALTIMORE/PITTSBURGH (6-5): One and only one of these teams even has a shot at the postseason, especially after Baltimore's OT win last week. It's telling that they've lost three games by less than 7 points. This team is searching for offensive production at a time where they need to be firing on all cylinders. Pittsburgh's troubles can be attributed to injuries. The Week 16 battle between these two will decide which one gets in. I'd put my money on the Steelers - easier schedule to close the season, better team when healthy, and much more experienced under pressure.

INDIANAPOLIS (11-0): I doubt they'll go undefeated, mostly because I doubt they WANT to go undefeated. Look to this week's game against a HOT Titans team to potentially be their undoing. And that's fine with Peyton and company. They are not perfect; they showed flaws against New England and are lucky to have won that game. Still, Manning is playing great and this team seems to catch all the right breaks. Those are teams of destiny, and they shouldn't be overlooked. It's hard not to love this team right now.

JACKSONVILLE (6-5): Too inconsistent to really be taken seriously. Games against Houston, Miami, Indy and New England down the stretch have all but taken this team out of consideration. They can't win out, and they'll likely need to in order to lock up a wild card slot.

HOUSTON/TENNESSEE (5-6): Two teams with much higher expectations this season, and two teams heading in different directions right now. For Tennessee to even be on this list is a testament to their outstanding play of late. If they beat Indy this weekend, yes, put them back in the playoff discussion. But one more game lingers - Christmas day against San Diego. For Houston, a three-game losing streak (all against division opponents) has hurt their chances significantly. Their saving grace - should they win out - might be catching a Patriots team in Week 17 that could be resting their starters. The rest of the schedule should be easy enough if they play better than they have recently.

SAN DIEGO (8-3): They've won big lately, and not against cupcakes - victories over the Giants, the Eagles and the Broncos in consecutive weeks showed this team is ready to compete. But we'll learn more when they face back-to-back tough tests against Dallas, Cincy and Tennessee after this week. Those are three hot teams with the postseason on their minds. If San Diego wins all of those games, I think they'll be ready for a deep run. Otherwise, I'm still not sold.

DENVER (7-4): After a red-hot start, the Broncos finally crashed back to earth. They're not much of a threat for any serious playoff-bound team. But as the rest of the AFC has fallen around them, they're still in the hunt. They'll win two of their next three in all likelihood, putting them at 9-5 (if they don't, they're in big trouble). A game against Philly in Week 16 will be big - win it and they'll make the playoffs. Lose it and it may not be enough.

Division Winners - New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis*, San Diego* (*-Bye)

Wild Card Picks - Denver, Pittsburgh

Consider this - If all of these teams win the games they're supposed to, you could very well see a rematch between Denver and New England - in Foxboro - and a Bengals-Steelers rematch in Cincy that would be the third meeting between the two teams. If Pittsburgh is healthy (and that's a big "if"), I'm not sure the Bengals beat them three times in a row. That means Pittsburgh, the lower seed, would travel to Indy while New England headed for San Diego, a place where they've enjoyed playoff success in the past. I doubt Pitt beats Indy at home, which means there are three teams in the AFC that are really capable of representing the conference in the Super Bowl, and I'm not ready to rule any of the three out just yet.

Coming later: My NFC breakdown...