The NFC has two bigger, badder juggernauts and fewer teams that look even remotely ready to compete with the big dogs in the NFL. Let's take a look at those who have playoff aspirations...
First, eliminate Washington, Chicago, Detroit, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Seattle and St. Louis. We're not even getting rid of San Francisco (yet). That's how bad the NFC is in terms of overall depth.
DALLAS (8-3): I have a friend who's a Cowboys fan. He's a good enough guy, so I'll make this quick. Dallas has beaten one team of significance - my Eagles, in a game Philly handed away on a silver platter. They needed OT to beat the Chiefs and edged the lowly Redskins by one point in a game they should have easily lost. They're better than I thought they'd be this year. They'll almost certainly grab a playoff spot. But where that spot is will prove crucial to their postseason hopes. And their season-ending schedule is brutal - three of their final four are against bonafide playoff teams.
PHILADELPHIA (7-4): Ugh. Here are my Eagles, sitting not-so-pretty at 7-4. Here's the scoop. Three of their four losses came to good teams - New Orleans (without McNabb, but they still would have lost), Dallas (a winnable game) and San Diego. Then there was the Oakland debacle. Philly's good for two of those games every year - unfortunately, the latter usually comes in the NFC title game. When they're right, they are elite and nearly unbeatable. They've just yet to show that true dominance this year. All five of their season-ending games are winnable. To show they're the third-best team in the conference, they need to win all five.
NEW YORK GIANTS (6-5): A season lost, essentially, for the G-Men. In fairness, you would have had a tough time piecing together an easier schedule through five weeks. Once the games got tougher, you saw a Giants team that wasn't really ready for tough games. In a division more akin to a war zone, they'd really need to win out to earn a playoff spot - a scenario that seems unlikely given they'll see Philly, Dallas and Minnesota in their final five. Against a faltering Denver team on Thanksgiving, the Giants played like turkeys, and that may have been their undoing, especially with reports that Eli's foot is worse than expected.
MINNESOTA (10-1): Wow, this team is good. You have Adrian Peterson, fresh off his 109-MPH speeding ticket and his six fumbles already this year, still a hair better than Tennessee's Chris Johnson as the best RB in the league. You have Brett Favre, 40 and playing like he's 27. These receivers are outstanding (Bernard Berrian went from their No. 1 to their No. 3 in just a few weeks) and Percy Harvin is the league's Offensive ROY. Jared Allen might be the best pass-rusher in all of football. But...Favre has thrown only three picks this year. He averages 17 per season and is the all-time career INT leader. You have to think he's due for a few "ol' gunslinger" moments, and Vikings fans are admittedly biting their nails hoping that first meltdown comes before the playoffs and not during them.
GREEN BAY (7-4): For all the boo-hooing about the Packers this year, they're still in great position for a playoff spot. Much like Philly, three of their losses were to playoff teams, including two to Favre on a mission against his old squad. The Pack could have laid down, defeated, against Dallas after an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay. Instead they thoroughly beat a good Dallas team and got back into it. Their year-end schedule is tough - games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Arizona, all teams fighting for playoff spots and positioning - but if Green Bay is to be taken seriously, they can prove it with some wins down the stretch.
NEW ORLEANS (11-0): Before the season began, I boldly pegged the Saints for 10 wins this year. They've already surpassed my expectations. Surprisingly, the only real difference from last season to this year is a much-improved defense, led by Darren Sharper. With a very impressive win over the Patriots, New Orleans has a serious chance to run the table, and unlike Indy, I think they want to do it. But this team isn't without its flaws. While the defense is much-improved, the Saints have given up 20 or more points seven times (and that number should be eight, if not for Belichick's perplexing propensity to go for it on fourth down on every other chance he gets). Only Atlanta and Dallas have records north of .500 for the Saints down the stretch. But the defense needs to shore it up or else face a humiliating defeat in the postseason.
ATLANTA (6-5): Frustration dots the landscape for the Falcons. While Matt Ryan was a capable QB this season, he certainly experienced a bit of a sophomore slump. Once the season is over, Atlanta may very well point to games against New Orleans, Carolina and especially a heartbreaker against the Giants in OT as the reason for why they missed the playoffs. A tough season-ending schedule awaits, especially with Ryan out this week against Philadelphia. From there it's one more against New Orleans and games against scrappy Jets, Bills and (gasp) Buccaneers teams (remember, Tampa Bay nearly beat Atlanta last week) that will offer few letups.
ARIZONA (7-4): We know from last season's historic run for Arizona that this season isn't over yet, and with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin on either side of whoever is throwing the ball, opposing defenses certainly fear this matchup. That said, Arizona is 2-3 at home. That's a telltale sign that this team has a fatal flaw, especially since the Cardinals will likely win their division easily and have to play a first-round playoff game in Tempe. This weekend's game against Minnesota (in prime-time, no less) will be a good barometer. If AZ keeps it close (or ekes out a win) they're a team to be reckoned with. If they're blown out, don't expect much except a first-round flameout for the defending NFC champs.
SAN FRANCISCO (5-6): The 49ers making the postseason would be short of a miracle but it would be impressive nonetheless. A collapse by the Cardinals, paired with a big win over the Eagles, could hand them the division. The other three games for San Fran - against Seattle, St. Louis and Detroit - are very winnable games. This is a team that nearly beat Minnesota early and Indy more recently. San Francisco has suffered five of six losses in close games against pretty good teams (a 45-10 drubbing at the hands of the Falcons the notable exception). Perhaps this team is better than everyone thinks.
NFC Division Winners - Philadelphia, Minnesota*, New Orleans*, Arizona (*-Byes)
Wild Card Teams - Dallas, Green Bay
I realize that, as an Eagles fan, picking my team to win the NFC East makes me lose a little credibility. But I'm not discrediting Dallas; simply acknowledging their very tough schedule down the stretch. I'd hate to see them face the Cowboys in a first-round game. Unfortunately, it may not be up to me. Consider this - because the conference is so, well, so-so, those wild card games are going to be grudge matches. You can't pick those four teams apart right now. I don't see any of those teams having enough left in the tank at season's end to do true battle against the Vikings or Saints. That leaves the much-anticipated NFC Championship showdown we're all secretly hoping for. And - get this - they both play in domes. What a game that's going to be. I'm salivating now just thinking about it.
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